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for Aug 2017

Q2 2017 – Economic Commentary

Two key local developments in the past month were the release of the latest iteration of the Mining Charter, followed a day later by seemingly unwarranted comments by the Public Protector on the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank. Both events proved negative for the currency, continuing an unfortunate trend of negative news that…

Q1 2017 – Economic Commentary

A weekend is a long time in South African markets. On the penultimate Friday of the month we had been examining research that suggested that the South African bond market was one of the most favourable around the world. On the subsequent Monday bond yields moved 7 points lower during the morning before reversing course…

Q4 2016 – Economic Commentary

United States equity markets surged ahead in November as the prospect of a Trump presidency held the promise of increased spending in the economy. Soon enough, investors started questioning where the money would come from – especially in a climate in which the national debt has inflated to historic highs. Furthermore, one of the nation’s…

Q3 2016 – Economic Commentary

Our comment this month seeks to distill a range of views put forward at a recent BCA (Bank Credit Analyst) Conference held in New York in late September. Speakers included Paul Volker, Larry Summers, Kevin Warsch, senior strategists from BCA, a range of external speakers and Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA. The theme…

Q2 2016 – Economic Commentary

Democracy can sometimes produce a range of unintended consequences. Without a doubt the recent referendum in the UK is one such event. The “leave” movement don’t have any real plans as to how nearly 40 years of integration will be undone within two years as provided for by Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The…

Q1 2016 – Economic Commentary

Investors are once again scratching their heads. By the end of January equity markets around the world signalled the potential onset of much slower global growth. Bond yields in the US declined as investors accepted that inflation was not the number one risk. The dollar weakened and this set off concerns that the world had…

Q4 2015 – Economic Commentary

Investors must understandably be concerned that news headlines once again portend doom and gloom. These negative sentiments seem to have been validated by the sharp decline in global equity markets over the past three months, a sharp decline in the dollar, a fall in the US 10 year bond yield to just above 1.5% and…